Some Comments By US President Donald Trump

I read the entire speech given by US President Trump the other day to see if anything he stated specifically dealt with the relationship between Canada and the United States. Here are a number of comments that I thought had some effect on his relationship with us. Exactly what it is, we will find out one day.

Naturally, Canada's name was not specifically set out but there is no doubt in my mind that we are included in part of his remarks. You, dear reader, can decide for yourself if you think I am correct in my analysis. Here are the speech excerpts:

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"Since the election, we have created 2.4 million new jobs, including 200,000 new jobs in manufacturing alone. After years of wage stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages.

Unemployment claims have hit a 45-year low. African-American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded, and Hispanic American unemployment has also reached the lowest levels in history.

Small business confidence is at an all-time high. The stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion in value. That is great news for Americans' 401k, retirement, pension, and college savings accounts.

And just as I promised the American people from this podium 11 months ago, we enacted the biggest tax cuts and reforms in American history.

Our massive tax cuts provide tremendous relief for the middle class and small businesses.

To lower tax rates for hardworking Americans, we nearly doubled the standard deduction for everyone. Now, the first $24,000 earned by a married couple is completely tax-free. 

We also doubled the child tax credit.

A typical family of four making $75,000 will see their tax bill reduced by $2,000 -- slashing their tax bill in half.

This April will be the last time you ever file under the old broken system -- and millions of Americans will have more take-home pay starting next month.

We eliminated an especially cruel tax that fell mostly on Americans making less than $50,000 a year -- forcing them to pay tremendous penalties simply because they could not afford government-ordered health plans. We repealed the core of disastrous Obamacare -- the individual mandate is now gone. 

We slashed the business tax rate from 35 percent all the way down to 21 percent, so American companies can compete and win against anyone in the world. These changes alone are estimated to increase average family income by more than $4,000.

Small businesses have also received a massive tax cut, and can now deduct 20 percent of their business income.

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In Detroit, I halted Government mandates that crippled America's autoworkers -- so we can get the Motor City revving its engines once again.

Many car companies are now building and expanding plants in the United States -- something we have not seen for decades. Chrysler is moving a major plant from Mexico to Michigan; Toyota and Mazda are opening up a plant in Alabama. Soon, plants will be opening up all over the country. This is all news Americans are unaccustomed to hearing -- for many years, companies and jobs were only leaving us. But now they are coming back.

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America has also finally turned the page on decades of unfair trade deals that sacrificed our prosperity and shipped away our companies, our jobs, and our Nation's wealth.

The era of economic surrender is over.

From now on, we expect trading relationships to be fair and to be reciprocal.

We will work to fix bad trade deals and negotiate new ones.

And we will protect American workers and American intellectual property, through strong enforcement of our trade rules.

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I am asking both parties to come together to give us the safe, fast, reliable, and modern infrastructure our economy needs and our people deserve.

Tonight, I am calling on the Congress to produce a bill that generates at least $1.5 trillion for the new infrastructure investment we need.

Every Federal dollar should be leveraged by partnering with State and local governments and, where appropriate, tapping into private sector investment -- to permanently fix the infrastructure deficit.

Any bill must also streamline the permitting and approval process -- getting it down to no more than two years, and perhaps even one.

Together, we can reclaim our building heritage. We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways, and waterways across our land. And we will do it with American heart, American hands, and American grit.

An Update On My $10 Billion Bridge Cost Story

For heaven's sake.  It's all over.  It  has been that way for years.  Officially, it's time to close down the border file silliness already.

I really don't want to write very much more about the border crossing. I have written about it for over a decade. To be blunt about it, I think I have been pretty accurate in my analysis.

However, when I see a story like this, I just have to write about it. It makes a mockery of what the Government people have been saying for so many years.

Frankly, dear reader, I would suggest that you go here to read the article by Amy Miller but more importantly to listen to the audio material:  "Are Two New Detroit River Bridges One Too Many?"   

Here is the key line in the story:

"President of the B-T-O Association, Ron Rienas says based on trends since 9-11, there is little demand for an additional Detroit River crossing"

By that, he means there is no justification for spending $10 billion of taxpayer money on a new bridge. It means that the Ambassador Bridge Company should be allowed to build their 2nd bridge at its own cost now.

I strongly urge you to listen to the audio at the beginning and especially at the 5:21 mark where you will hear about the reality of the border.

By the way, Ron Rienas is also General Manager - Peace Bridge.

$10 Billion Cost For A New Government Windsor/Detroit Bridge

I am still in a state of shock. I am still stunned. It is so unbelievable that it makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever.

I will guess that you will be in a similar position to me once you read the newspaper story which is the subject of my article, dear reader. It is so completely astounding that you will be as completely surprised as well.

I have to admit that I did not see this story being mentioned in any of the news services to which I subscribe. I did not see it being "advertised" as a story that just came out. When it first came out, I did not hear anything about it being said nor did I see any stories being published about it by anyone nor was I told about it.

I lucked out finally. I heard about it, went to the Radio Station Website where it was supposed to have been written and was able to find it, see it and then read the story!

It was so dramatic seeing the headline and then the first 2 paragraphs of the article.

Here is the relevant section of the CKLW story:

"Cost Of Gordie Howe Bridge May Hit $10-billion

Peter Langille  CKLW Radio  January 24, 2018  

Fresh off assurances the federal government remains committed to the Gordie Howe International Bridge project, comes word the cost may have risen dramatically.

Senior officials have been coy about the anticipated price, but it could go from the $5-billion range to as much as $7 to $10 billion." (Peter Langille, CKLW Radio, January 24th 2018)  

There was not much more mentioned in the story about this. Notwithstanding the horrific cost, former politician and now WDBA Board Chair Dwight Duncan "remains adamant the span will be built." 

Just so that you will understand the number, dear reader, the sum of $10 billion is about 20 times more than what the Ambassador Bridge Company will be paying now to finish off the second bridge that they have already started to build beside their existing bridge.

20 TIMES HIGHER IN PRICE!

That is correct. The Ambassador Bridge Company needs to spend only about $500 million more to complete their project.

There is no doubt now in my mind that the Gordie Howe Bridge is never going to be built. Why would anyone want to spend $10 billion to build a bridge when one can build a second crossing for one 20th of the cost!

I suspect that rumours about this horrific new cost for the Government bridge happened several months ago and the issue arose at that time whether it would be cancelled. Nothing happened then or since that time as far as I can recall about the issue until now. 

Here is what was written that I now find so fascinating:

"Could the Gordie Howe bridge be cancelled like a $3.5-billion bridge project in British Columbia?

If it happened in Vancouver, could it happen in Windsor?

A member of the Gordie Howe bridge project’s community advisory group in Detroit is drawing parallels between bridge projects in the two cities. The one in B.C. — the George Massey bridge project — was scrapped on the eve of construction despite years of planning, plus $66 million spent on site clearing and other preparatory work.

“(The Massey bridge) was a similar project and value and it happened,” said Gregg Ward. “This shows it is in the universe of possibility — a perfect example of what could happen here until you get financial close (on the Howe bridge) signed with an operator. Only then is there no going back once you have that.”

Ward raised the possibility of the Howe bridge being scuttled despite comments this week from Canada’s Infrastructure Minister Amarjeet Sohi that the stalled Detroit River crossing will get done despite being nearly two years behind schedule." (DaveBattagello, Windsor Star, October 6, 2017) 

The answer to that story's headline is so obvious about cancellation isn't it!

That is all that I want to write, dear reader. You should know as well as I that the only reason why they Government Howe Bridge project is still alive is to protect the Government of Canada in the negotiations going on with the United States and Mexico these days on the NAFTA talks. Once an agreement with NAFTA is finalized then the Howe Bridge has to disappear as well.

#43

Yes dear reader, it is that date coming up again. January 26, the date that is so important for my wife, Marsha, and me. This day is our wedding anniversary. This year it is our 43rd year of marriage! 

I cannot believe that we have been together for so many years. It just does not seem that way to me. Even now it just seems that we have been together for a short period of time. We do not bore each other. We just get along so well with all of the great things that we do together!

I have told you so many times, dear reader, how well she has treated me after the serious illness that I had a few years ago. She had to change her life in a very short period of time in order to deal with our new situation.

Notwithstanding how desperate my circumstances were in the Hospital, I have learned from her that, as my condition improved, she was feeling more relieved about my recovery. Thanks to her, that happened magnificently. 

I am not going to discuss how we have carried on together for so many years. I am sure that you have read about many of the circumstances in what I have written in my various writings. You will know from what you have seen how important we are in both of our lives together. That is what makes me so thrilled about our relationship. 

I hope that you too, dear reader, have found a partner for you so that you both can have a situation which is so like the one that Marsha and I have experienced for so many years. 

Happy anniversary my dear Marsha! 

Now here are some stories that I am posting for you to consider.

NEED A HOSPITAL BED 

If you do need one these days, dear reader, you might be experiencing some trouble in getting it. Without going into a lot of discussion about the subject, here is the story to which I am referring:

"Windsor Regional Hospital sees sudden surge in patient volumes

…staff President and CEO David MUSYJ noted that they are seeing an increase in patients suffering from flu symptoms, and respiratory issues.

The Met Campus is currently at 118% capacity and the Ouellette Campus is at 104%." (CTV Windsor, January 23, 2018) 

Can you imagine what the situation would be like a dozen years or so from now if our new hospital was built? You know as well as I do how bad that would be.

Why then are we still considering building a Hospital that may only have 500 beds in it when we know already that number is too small for a population that is supposed to be larger and have many more elderly people living in it!

HERE WE GO AGAIN

In all honesty, I cannot believe this nonsense anymore.

I had promised that the number of articles I would do on the border issues would be minimized. My reason for saying that obviously is that there is no reason for me to do more articles because the Ambassador Bridge Company is going to build their new second bridge crossing and I doubt if anybody else in the Governments is going to build a new Government one. It just seemed so dumb to me for the Governments to spend $4-$5 billion, or way more, on building a bridge that was not necessary.

However, here is what I saw recently that annoyed me but not enough by itself for me to write an article about it:

"Howe bridge 'No. 1 priority,' construction starts this fall, federal minister says

The Gordie Howe International Bridge is the nation’s “No. 1” infrastructure priority and construction will begin this fall as scheduled, the federal government’s top minister on the file said in Windsor on Monday.

“We are working toward September for the conclusion of signing the contract with the selected proponent,” said Amarjeet Sohi, Canada’s Minister of Infrastructure and Communities. “I have every confidence in the ability to put the shovels in the ground (at that time) and proceed with construction.

“When it comes to building a crossing between the United States and Canada, this is a very high priority for us.” (Dave Battagello, Windsor Star, January 22, 2018) 

Of course, it is so ridiculous that I am surprised that a Minister of the Government should embarrass himself, and his future career, by making such a statement. Here is some information about himself that I saw on his own personal website:

"Prior to being elected Member of Parliament, Minister Sohi was a three-term Edmonton City Councillor. This experience taught him the importance of infrastructure as the foundation for citizens to create strong, sustainable, and inclusive communities."

However, here is what is more troubling to me because of the amount of money that he has under his control and which he is involved in spending.  It is why I am writing this article now:

"Since assuming the Infrastructure and Communities portfolio, Minister Sohi has overseen the design and early implementation of a more than $180 billion plan over 12 years – the largest infrastructure investment plan in Canada’s history. This plan invests unprecedented amounts in public transit, green infrastructure, clean water and waste water, affordable housing, trade-enabling infrastructure, rural and northern communities, and more."

You will understand my concern I trust after you read some more information that I am going to post on here.

I just saw information provided by the Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association (BTOA) dated on January 22, 2018. What it demonstrates as clearly as I can believe is that it is absolutely ridiculous for the Government of Canada to believe that a Government bridge should ever be built here in addition to the new one being built by the Ambassador Bridge Company. Especially at the huge costs they have claimed already that they may have to pay which is about 10 times more than the Bridge Company has to spend now on its project ie around 10 times more than the new $500 million Ambassador Bridge cost.

Of course, the Ambassador Bridge Company numbers for border crossings in 2017--- 6,875,030 cars and trucks--- are greater than those of any other crossings in Ontario. In particular, greater for the number of trucks. Why should that be a concern you might ask. Here is the obvious explanation:

"Overall cross border traffic in 2017 was 35.4% lower than in 2000 when 52,367,401 vehicles traversed the border."

There it is. The reality of what is happening at the border. Traffic has not gone up as expected and as predicted by the Government people previously. It may well explain why the Government people today do not reveal what they think the border crossing numbers will be in the future. If they are this bad now, not only in Windsor but across Ontario, then how the heck can they afford to spend money on a new border crossing in an amount of the so many billions of dollars predicted already.

Here is what I also saw:

"attached document entitled “2000 – 2017 Comparative Traffic Volume Analysis of Bridge & Tunnel Operators Association (BTOA) Crossings.”  

Let me just set out what has happened to date on border traffic numbers and why the previous Government predictions about what would happen with respect to crossings in the future are so ridiculous that it is no wonder that they are not releasing their numbers today.

Auto pic decline shows a total decline of 38.35%

Truck pic decline shows a total decline of 20.32%

Total traffic decline pic shows a total decline of 35.42%

Above is the pic showing the total decline in a very simple form. (Note, I am not including in a separate picture the crossing numbers for buses in my article)

Of course, the Canadian Government will not explain why what it is saying is so absurd. In my opinion it all has to do with negotiations with the United States with respect to the border crossing, especially with respect to the NAFTA relationship.  

Oh well, enough of this absurdity for today.

My Gymnastics

One of the things that I must do now after my illness of just over 3 years ago is make sure that I continually exercise. Oh sure, there are lots of gym actions that I take these days. Interestingly, before I got so ill, I have to admit that I did very little in the way of performing any functions whatsoever.  Obviously, I must do a lot in physical activity now continually in order to remain as healthy as I possibly can for the rest of my life.

I don't want you to think, dear reader, that I do anything very dramatic. I really can't do that. However, there are a number of steps that I take every day to keep myself feeling well. Just so you know, until recently I was doing a set of exercises 3 times per day to help myself stay in better shape. I will explain what I mean shortly by "until recently."

I was taught a number of actions to help me keep in shape. This set of exercises takes about 20 minutes for each one for me to do all of them completely. In total then, I would be exercising about an hour per day. I had to start off with a relatively small number of steps in a particular exercise because physically I was just not able to do very many of them. However, the longer I kept doing them the better I felt and that allowed me to increase the number of motions for each exercise. Just so you understand what I mean by that, initially I might do something 3 or 4 times and now I do them 20 times. Soon, I will try to increase the numbers even higher.

"Until recently" does mean something. What I am saying, dear reader, is letting you know that I no longer just do the exercises that I have been doing for quite some time. No, I am being taught new exercises through a local program with which I am now dealing. In the last few weeks of working out with them, they have taught me 10 new exercises that I have to learn how to do. Right now, I am carrying out these exercises in small numbers. I assume that I might be taught even more new ones as time goes on. 

All of this will require that I spend additional time learning how to do these exercises and then actually carry them out. Right now I spend about 40 additional minutes per day with all these new steps. I must admit that I will probably spend even more time doing so once I learn how to do them properly because I will be able to exercise in a better fashion. 

Overall, that means about 2 hours per day to carry out my gym work.  For me that is completely different from what I have ever done before including the exercising I am doing now. Hopefully, the end result of all of this additional gym work is that I will feel a lot better given my age and what has happened to me from a health perspective recently.

Now, let me tell you about some interesting stories that I have seen recently.

CROSSING THE BORDER

It should not be a surprise to you, dear reader, that I have not crossed the border between Windsor and Detroit since I have been ill 3 years ago. For much of that time, it probably was not possible for me to do so because I had to get my body back in shape as much is possible with the illness that I was suffering. Even now, being in a relatively better shape compared with before, I still do not feel comfortable in going there and back. One day I trust I will be able to do so but not right now.

Recently, I read an article setting out the position of Nicholas Mizera who is a Blogs Editor at HuffPost Canada dated January 13, 2018:

"The U.S. Border Feels Like Hostile Territory To Canadians Like Me" (Nicholas Mizera, HuffPost Canada, January 13, 2018) 

To be direct, the question that he is really dealing with is the relationship now between Canada and the United States.  That is not something that he is talking about right to the point or with what he is dealing with directly. No, he talks about the problems in border crossing and how difficult it is now. Yet, he makes this comment close to the end of his article:

"Indeed, despite NAFTA, the process of crossing this sometimes blurred line between Canada and the U.S. has become painfully one-sided over the years — worse, in recent times…

At this point, I have to ask myself: as a Canadian, do I even want to cross the U.S. border? Do I want to risk my freedom, privacy or well-being — or that of a family member — to travel to Donald Trump's America?"

I believe that it is not the United States of America border crossing that is the big concern to him. No, I think that it is what he views as "Donald Trump's America."  One has to ask whether he would have the same difficulty if the President was a Democrat or even a different Republican.

I do agree with him that there is a difference when crossing the border. At least in the past, it seemed to be to me much more "friendly" crossing into Canada and dealing with the Canadian border people. Even then, I found it much stricter crossing into the United States although, to be frank, it was very quick to do so if one answered the questions asked by the US Customs person right on point. I believe that one's Customs records were displayed and then reviewed by the border person in the US just as one entered into that person's border crossing spot. I know that the information they had was pretty thorough based on some questions that I was asked. Moreover, that person was pretty "tough" in talking with you when asking you "border questions" but not many were asked, and if answered properly, then one was admitted easily.

Is it the same today or not? Obviously I do not know but it is not too difficult guess. There are more violence border matters, even more in North America than ever before. And extremely dangerous and life-threatening. That means that those in a "border" position knows that it is his/her job to protect their homeland against violence especially if the person who acts in such a manner crosses the border right through that person's border crossing.  

Regretfully, that person will never again be able to act in the "friendly" past manner for which one would hope.  That person cannot accept that his/her friendliness will lead to destruction.

Like it or not, that is the reality. Again, like it or not, one has to accept how a Customs Agent will now deal with you when crossing over and be prepared to act in the manner that the Customs person will accept.

WILL WINDSOR FORD REALLY EXPAND

Wow, do economic matters change so quickly, especially in the automobile industry that is so important economically in this Region. Just read on and see what I mean.

Sure, this expansion announcement was important for this region along with other automotive economic matters with other Auto Companies:

"Ford announced in November 2016 it was investing $613 million in its Windsor plants to launch a new global 7.0-litre engine program, after a four-year collective agreement between Ford and Unifor was reached." (Julie Kotsis, Windsor Star, January 12, 2018) 

That seemed to boost this area along with what is expected to happen with Chrysler. Yet, will that really happen in the first place and, even if it does, how long will the economic improvement last?

Just to let you know what I mean, do you remember this about a year ago:

"Ford Motor Co on Tuesday scrapped a planned Mexican car factory and added 700 jobs in Michigan following criticism by Donald Trump, as the U.S. president-elect turned his attention toward rival General Motors Co with the threat of a “big border tax” over compact cars made in Mexico." (Reuters January 4, 2017) 

How about this the other day, about a year later:

"Fiat Chrysler Automobiles said on Thursday it will shift production of Ram heavy-duty pickup trucks from Mexico to Michigan in 2020, a move that lowers the risk to the automaker’s profit should President Donald Trump pull the United States out of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Fiat Chrysler said it would create 2,500 jobs at a factory in Warren, Michigan, near Detroit and invest $1 billion in the facility." (Reuters January 12, 2018) 

In other words, dear reader, how long will all the "good news" really last and what has to be done to try to make sure that it really does happen? Just remember what happened in Australia and hope that it never happens here:

"As thousands of people attended an automobile rally in Australia’s blue-collar heartland on Sunday, many knew it was also a funeral procession for the nation’s car industry.

General Motors Co. will close its Holden factory in the South Australian suburb of Elizabeth on Friday, ending more than a century of car manufacturing in the country. Hundreds of workers will be left jobless, just weeks after Toyota Motor Corp. shut its plant in neighboring Victoria state, where Ford Motor Co. closed two sites last year." (Zoe Ma,Bloomberg, October 19, 2017) 

A Traffic Story Of Interest

I am just in the mood these days to write a lot more than I have written for awhile. Sure, there are a lot of stories about which I would like to write. However, I believe that the main reason why I feel like writing so much has to do with the weather.

It still is so cold outside with the temperature so low. The likelihood that I would want to walk around for say 20 to 30 minutes several times a day as I did before is extremely low. It is just not worth it to me. Instead, I do more exercising in my condo.

Clearly, I have more time to do other activities because I'm not exercising as much as I did before. One of those activities, as you can tell now, is writing more articles. Here is another one that I have just put together on one major topic.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE BORDER CROSSING FILES

Do you really know what is going on, dear reader? I sure don't. I am completely out of touch in all of this stuff.

The relationship involving Canada, the United States and Mexico is so confusing. Should we hope that the 3 countries will restructure their relationship, hopefully soon, or will it completely collapse? If it collapses, what happens economically to Canada especially where most of my readers including me and my family happen to live ie. in the Windsor area where the automobile industry plays such a large role? 

It all started off so positively didn't it. It seemed as if we were going to have a deal completed rather quickly. All of the Senior Leaders seemed to be such great "friends" with each other at first.

Regretfully, that hasn't happened. Now the question is will the parties be able to negotiate some kind of a deal at all. My expectation frankly is that they will not be able to do so soon and it may appear that the relationship amongst the parties will end. I am hoping that the termination does not happen but rather the parties spend some additional time in negotiating a final settlement before everything is forced to finish up.

There are so many stories out there about what is happening at the border. Some are good while some are not. It is so difficult trying to figure out exactly what is going on and what may happen. All that I know is that Canada has to make sure that whatever happens is beneficial for our economy, especially for our area that is so dependent on the border crossing here.

I wish I knew what the real situation is. But I do not. I just wonder if you, dear reader, will know anything either if one looks at recent news stories that come out.

Let's take a look at what Anne Jarvis wrote in the Windsor Star.  Here are some things that she said in "Windsor-Essex is ground zero if NAFTA collapses" on January 12, 2018"

She quoted this person with something that is extremely scary:

"The regional economy is tied to the U.S. more than any other place in Canada, and if the U.S. withdraws from NAFTA, “it would be disastrous,” says Jonathan Azzopardi, president of mould maker Laval International in Tecumseh.

“There’s no other way really to put it,” he said. “That’s our biggest partner, and we can’t afford to have them turn their back on us.”

Considering the statistics she set out in the beginning of the article what she wrote is quite understandable:

"Forty thousand people in Windsor and Essex County work in manufacturing, 80 per cent of them in the auto industry.

There are more than 90 vehicle and parts manufacturers, more than 250 machine, tool, die and mould manufacturers, most producing for the auto industry."

Her column sets out a lot of problems that this Region faces. If those problems cannot be solved, then it will be disastrous economically here. However, is it really that bad?

I just love how Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group, was quoted in the "BMO Economics: Risks Manageable if NAFTA Ends:"

"While the termination of NAFTA would be a net negative for the Canadian economy and a mild negative for the U.S., it is a manageable risk that policymakers, businesses, and markets would adjust to in relatively short order, according to a new report from BMO Economics – The Day After NAFTA.

"It is critical to note that policy would not stand still in the event of a negative outcome for NAFTA," said Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group. "Monetary policy would be looser than it would otherwise be, the Canadian dollar would adjust lower, and even fiscal policy would potentially adjust. We expect that Canadian trade policy would be aggressively aimed at diversifying Canada's interests by securing new arrangements with faster growing economies like the TPP and Mercosur nations, India and China, while seeking to achieve full benefit of the recently enacted Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic & Trade Agreement.

"All of these factors would work to mitigate the economic damage," concluded Mr. Porter."

Pshaw, no need to worry right, after reading this comment in a covering newsroom memo. Oh dear, can that be right? I think they forgot to mention this part in their actual report. I don't know why that seems to have been so forgotten. Maybe they thought it might scare some people, especially in Ontario:

"The transportation equipment industry would be one of the hardest-hit, as the trade agreement has resulted in extremely tight integration across the North American auto sector, with parts reported to cross the border up to seven times over the course of vehicle production (raising the possibility that the total tariff burden could exceed the WTO rate). In Canada, the industry’s reliance on exports to the U.S. is among the highest of all industries, with 69% of total sales heading south across the border…

Downstream from manufacturers, the auto distribution industry would also be highly affected. Conservative industry estimates suggest that the cost of vehicles produced in North America could increase by over US$1000 on average, which would weigh noticeably on consumer demand and squeeze dealership margins. Certain dealerships would also face cost pressure far exceeding the industry average, depending on the composition of sales relative to that of domestic production. Auto distribution would be further disrupted by the greater regulatory burden of a closedborder regime, with deliveries to dealer lots likely to be delayed upon termination of the trade agreement—a particularly troubling prospect with industry sales and turnover near peak rates across the North American marketplace…

Ontario still looks like the province most at risk from a disruption to NAFTA, since its economy is arguably the most integrated with the U.S. through well-established supply chains. Indeed, Ontario’s export sector is one of the most highly-levered to the U.S., with nearly 83% of shipments going south of the border in 2016. Because the province is relatively export-intensive to begin with, that leaves 26% of GDP tied to U.S. exports. And, the bulk of those exports (80% of the U.S. total) are in industries that we deem vulnerable to trade negotiations, including a whopping $79 bln of transportation equipment exports. Indeed, the tightly-integrated auto sector is probably the key area of concern for province, especially when considering activity in other areas that feed off the sector. All told, U.S. exports in vulnerable sectors account for roughly 20% of Ontario GDP, the highest share in Canada by a wide margin."

I would have thought that one ought to be rather concerned over what would happen if one lives in the Province of Ontario as most of my readers do! Anne referred to the C. D. Howe Institute report in her article as another relevant report.  Here is what it stated in this report "The NAFTA Renegotiation: What if the US Walks Away?" Tell me how you feel:

"Industrial products in the chemicals, rubber and plastics complex and automotive sectors experience large declines in bilateral exports to NAFTA partners; these losses are partly compensated by re-orientation towards third markets and to the domestic market, in part filling gaps resulting from declining bilateral imports. Total sales of these sectors fall by $3-4 billion…

Significant sectoral impacts from loss of export markets are therefore limited to a handful of sectors, most notably the automotive and chemicals-rubber-plastics sectors. If the CUSFTA holds, Canada stands to make some gains in the United States by diverting trade away from Mexico. If Canada and Mexico continue free trade under a CMFTA, Canada makes gains in the Mexican market, largely at the US expense…

The United States is exposed to trade with Canada and with Mexico in roughly equal measure: dropping free trade with either is damaging in roughly equal measure.  For the US economy, the impacts would not be particularly large, but they are concentrated in two key areas: the automotive sector and agricultural exports to the Mexican market…

The sharp and narrowly felt pain in the US automotive and farm sectors means that this battle will be fought within the United States, between US stakeholders, Congress and the White House, as much if not more than between Canada and Mexico and the Trump Administration. Indeed, awareness of this reality may even make the Trump Administration’s threat to terminate NAFTA look like a bluff."

I think that this work is a bit more positive, if I really understood it all. Mind you, it still makes this matter seem even more complicated for people like me who are not very experienced in this area.

So where is everything going? I wish I knew the answer to that but I don't. I must admit though that deep down I believe that there will be an agreement signed between the 3 countries. After all, do the Americans political leaders think that they and their party members will be re-elected if all of this falls apart? A lot of US States do have a role to play in dealing with Canada and especially with the automobile industry. Wouldn't it be better for the Republican leaders if some deal is reached just before election campaign in the Fall? I would think so because they could look like heroes that they entered into a good deal that is appropriate for the US.

Naturally of course, the Canadian Government would be pleased to have a deal done this year because the next Canadian election is next year and they could use their interpretation of what happened as a win for Canada which only their Party could have accomplished. They would have a whole year to promote it aggressively.

Should we all be panicking now and try to figure out where we should go if all of this collapses? Who wants to live in a country that is economically destroyed, particularly in our area which is so dependent on the automotive industry?

Hold on, maybe there is another story coming out. Its may be one suggesting that our salvation is coming up very quickly because our Federal Government has figured out now that we might be in big trouble.

I just saw another news story that just came out that may be helping all of us in Canada because it may suggest that a deal is possible to save this country sooner rather than later. Take a look at this article by Thomas Walkom who is a National Affairs Columnist on the Toronto Star that was written on January 14, 2018: (Thomas Walkom, Toronto Star, January 14, 2018) 

"On NAFTA, Canada agrees to discuss the unthinkable

Sometimes governments talk tough on trade to divert attention when they are preparing to cede ground…

Canada seems to be quietly backing down on the North American Free Trade Agreement. It is now willing to bargain U.S. demands that the Liberal government had formerly dismissed as deal-breakers.

That seems to be the gist of several days of confusing messages on the NAFTA negotiations coming out of Ottawa.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland set the table last week when she told reporters that Ottawa has come up with “creative” ideas for dealing with the impasse in the three-way talks between Canada, Mexico and the U.S…

The Globe and Mail reports that Canada will propose technical changes to auto content rules in order to mollify the Americans. The newspaper also reports that Canada is mulling over proposals to change three dispute settlement chapters in order to make them more acceptable to Washington."

Who knows if this is true or not? Maybe this is designed to fool the Americans so that Canada can remain tough but so that the Canadian politicians retain the support of the public that will be voting for them next year. Here is what reporter wrote at the end of his article:

"Sometimes governments talk tough when they are tough. But sometimes they do it to distract attention when they are preparing to cede ground.

We shall see which holds here."

Keep on reading all of this nonsense in the media, dear reader, and let us see what happens, especially those of us who live in one of the key automotive centres in this Country and who could lose so much if it all fails.

Writing Blogs

Believe it or not, I like writing articles for my Blogsite.  

I have to admit that I don't write as much as I did in the past. Part of the reason obviously is that it is much more difficult for me to spend so much time researching a topic and then write an article about it. Where I had the ability to do so much work previously, I just don't have that now. Nevertheless, I still do as much as I possibly can when I decide to write an article to make sure that what I distribute to the public is worthy.

Clearly that is not the only reason why I do write less than I did before. Another reason is that I just don't see the need to do so on some of the topics that I thought were so important before.  Just to give you the obvious example, what do I need to write about the new border crossing now?

Notwithstanding all the silliness that is still going on, it is clear to me that the Ambassador Bridge Company will be able to build their 2nd bridge in a relatively short period of time and then be able to operate it. Accordingly, who needs to produce any extremely long and very detailed article after article on subjects about the new bridge that are now quite boring.  Seriously, it's a done deal!

I use this Website as an outlet to express my own personal views about what is going on in this world. As my usual process, I will refer to some stories I see elsewhere and give you my view on them. Here are just a few that I have seen recently.

CANADA INFRASTRUCTURE BANK

In case you did not know it, here is what this Bank is supposed to do as shown in the Infrastructure Canada website:

"The Canada Infrastructure Bank will invest $35 billion from the federal government into infrastructure projects. $15 billion is sourced from the over $180 billion Investing in Canada infrastructure plan."

To be honest about it, I don't know very much about this Bank or how successful it will be. Given the financial problems that the Government Canada has, I just wonder if there is enough money to provide to this Bank. Interestingly, I saw this comment at the beginning of a Globe and Mail article (which I saw on a different website that I could access):

"Federal Liberals are promoting the Canada Infrastructure Bank to the Trump administration as a way to fund large cross-border projects…

And a new report prepared for the Washington State Department of Transportation says the bank could be a source of funding for an ultrahigh-speed rail line connecting Vancouver, Seattle and Portland. The high-level report, released on Dec. 15, estimated the high-speed rail line would cost between $24-billion (U.S.) and $42-billion." (Bill Curry, Globe and Mail, January 11, 2018)

The article did state, which I found interesting, the following:

"The federal Crown corporation is designed to encourage institutional investors – such as pension funds – to lead the funding and management of large infrastructure projects with minority funding from the government bank."

In other words, there is a need for other financial sources for Canada's major projects or they just won't be built with financing only from the Canadian Government. Yet, isn't the Government supposed to paying all of the costs itself on its Border Bridge project here:

"Meanwhile, the Finance Canada document makes reference to leaked documents from Donald Trump's presidential campaign, which listed 50 priority infrastructure projects across the United States.

That list included two projects that cross the Canada-U.S. border: the Peace Bridge and the Gordie Howe Bridge… 

The Canadian government is currently committed to covering all of the construction costs of the new Gordie Howe Bridge between Windsor and Detroit, including a new U.S. customs plaza. The plan is for Canada to recoup the cost of the American share of the project through tolls."

Just reading this suggests to me once again that the Gordie Howe Bridge is never going to happen nor was it ever expected to be built if Canada requires money from others for other projects but will pay for the Gordie Howe Bridge all on its own.

TROUBLE WITH A WINDSOR VEHICLE

Chrysler Pacifica minivans are built in Windsor aren't they? I do not think they are built anywhere else. I saw this in a Windsor Star story a few months ago:

"Just this past week, in only its first year of production…the 2017 Chrysler Pacifica and the Pacifica Hybrid, scooped up awards No. 60 and No. 61." (Doug Schmidt, Windsor Star, August 3, 2017)  

I am certain that it has won a lot more awards. As an example, I saw in another article that the number had increased to 72.

However, will it continue to receive awards because of this story:

"After scores of owners filed safety complaints or shared concerns through social media, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles said Friday that it was recalling nearly 154,000 Chrysler Pacifica minivans to fix an issue that has caused some to stall suddenly while being driven.

The company discovered that under rare conditions the minivan’s engine control module could incorrectly assess the operating status, potentially causing the engine to stall. Drivers found that they had to shut the vehicles off and restart them to resume driving. Some reported experiencing stalls in intersections or on highways." (Neal E. Boudette, New York Times, January 12, 2018) 

I did see a story about this in the Windsor Star on January 12, 2018. Strange though, it was not a story written by a Star reporter but rather came from the Associated Press. 

ADD-ON  Just to let you know that a Star reporter did do a story on this afterwards but it was posted on January 13.  Here is what the reporter was told that was extra:

"Company spokesman Eric Mayne told the Star Saturday that there had been “no injuries we are aware of, and there has been a single, potentially related, accident.” Most of the instances of stalling that had been reported occurred when the vehicles were idling or while starting, turning or moving at slow speeds, the company said." (Doug Schmidt, Windsor Star, January 13, 2018) 

It Warmed Up

Wasn't the warmer temperature that we just had in our area nice? Especially in January!

It felt so much better with the temperature above the freezing mark. For so many days, the temperature was quite far below making it difficult, for me anyway, to go outside even for a walk. It was just too cold to do so and, therefore, I did not do it. Instead, I stayed indoors and picked up a bit on the exercising I did to try to keep myself fit.

Sure it is only about the middle of January, but here I am dreaming about spring coming soon. I hope we have an early one with the temperature getting warmer and the flowers coming out a little bit sooner. That is a lot better than seeing so much snow as we have so far this year. I understand that the amount that we get is a lot less than the snow that falls in other areas. However, it must be remembered that we just don't have all of the staff and resources necessary to clean up quickly heavy snow falls.

I needed to do something other than walking outside for over an hour a day as I do in the end parts of spring, in summer and then in the early part in autumn.  Therefore, I decided that nothing would be better than for me to use my brains and keep them working by writing this article.

A UNIVERSITY STUDY

I see that the Cross Border Institute University is having a study done on the border by researchers at the University of Windsor and the Michigan State University: "Gordie Howe International Bridge Logistics and Transportation Study."

I received an invitation from Dr. Bill Anderson, Director, Cross-Border Institute, to complete the survey that was supposed to take about 15 minutes. I thought it might be interesting to see what they were trying to do so I entered the survey website. It worked very well until I was about 40% through the whole thing and then it collapsed, completely! It just would not go forward to the next page so that I could continue completing the project. I did try on a number of attempts to move forward to the next page but it did not do so.

I closed it down and then wrote to the person to whom one could send a note and told that person about the failure.  About an hour later, everything seemed to work properly because I was able to complete the entire survey. I did receive a note from the person involved but I have no idea if it was my note that helped fix up the system.

I am not going to discuss the details of this survey. I would suggest that those who also received the invitation should go out and complete it. 

I will just mention one thing that I found rather strange in some of the material I received. Read this from "LETTER OF INFORMATION FOR CONSENT TO PARTICIPATE IN RESEARCH:"

"The online survey will be available to respondents for a period of one month starting September 15, 2017…The online survey will approximately take 12-15 minutes to complete and will be available to you for one month until October 15, 2017. "

For some reason, nothing happened for me, and I assume other participants, until I received the invitation dated January 5, 2018. Moreover, it appeared that the time period for this project was now "active for a period of 6 weeks starting January 1, 2018."

Oh well, I can hardly wait until they finally finish their project so that we can judge its quality given its results based on the number of people who responded and who they were. PLUS, how they finally ran this project and how long it took to complete it.

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT 2017 FOR WINDSOR

How wonderful of Windsor's Mayor, Drew Dilkens, to let his electorate know all of the wonderful things accomplished by elected representatives of the City, especially by those representatives who seemed to support him who were in the majority, in 2017 and then what might happen in 2018.

Of course, none of this is meant to be "electoral" material ---i.e. positive news to help people get re-elected--- because people are not nominated for the office they want until later in the year.

Again, dear reader, you ought to go here and read what he said to the reporter involved: "Mayor Drew Dilkens reflects on 2017 accomplishments, hopes for 2018." (Brian Cross, Windsor Star, January 7, 2018) 

Now, dear reader, I am not going to go into great detail about the story because you ought to go and read it yourself. However, this is what the Mayor thought was so wonderful for 2017, set out at the top of the story:

"It “was an exciting year because it was the city’s 125th birthday so we were able to celebrate that and Canada’s 150th birthday with the Great Canadian Flag project, another Open Streets, of course Bright Lights happening right now,” Dilkens said. “And back in the spring we were successful in hosting the MasterCard Memorial Cup and the outcome there (a Spitfires championship) was spectacular for the community.”

Really important stuff to make this City so prosperous, right. Of course not but that is just my opinion.

BORDER INACTION

I just don't get it yet. There is another story that just came out with respect noise at the border. No, it has nothing to do with the traffic at the Ambassador Bridge.

Yes, it is a story from CTV Windsor about the "Windsor Hum" about which we seem to know very little:

"Some residents in Windsor suggest the infamous ‘Windsor Hum’ is back with a vengeance.

“The Windsor Hum is back, some nights worse than others, but it is definitely back,” says Mark Steven, who lives along the Detroit River near the University." (CTV Windsor, January 10, 2018) 

We seem to know very little about what is the cause of this noise although we do know that it creates all kinds of difficulties for people who live near the river:

"It's an issue that first gained attention more than five years ago.

A 2014 study concluded the noise was coming from across the Detroit River on Zug Island."

It is amazing that, after all this time, we still have no idea what the problem is that is coming from the US or how to solve it.  I wonder why then we know so much about whatever some people think are difficulties from the Ambassador Bridge.

Of course we all know that nothing is going to change and that this noise will carry on in the future. At least, we will see the NDP once again making sure that everyone knows how unsuccessful they are in what they are trying to accomplish for people who live nearby.